Brad Pitt's F1's $55M Opening: Hit or Hype? What Defines Success Now? | Kinolime Podcast Episode 8
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Hosted byDanny Murray, John Schramm
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvtakzQqWWkhttps://www.youtube.com/embed/rvtakzQqWWk
Show Notes
The following summary outlines the discussion regarding current box office metrics and industry trends:
Defining a "Hit" vs. a "Flop": The speakers discuss the ambiguity of labeling films as hits or flops in the current market, specifically contrasting the $55 million domestic opening of F1—which is being widely labeled a hit—against similar openings for films like The Flash and Indiana Jones: The Dial of Destiny, which were labeled flops.
Potential Influencing Factors:
There is speculation that media bias or a desire for Apple to continue investing in theatrical film production might influence how F1 is categorized.
The speakers discuss whether "hit" status should be proportional to a film's budget.
Other factors considered include per-screen averages, international performance, and a film's ability to generate "legs" or cultural buzz.
Market Context: The speakers note that the box office climate has changed in a post-COVID world, suggesting that lower thresholds for success might be necessary as the industry adjusts to new realities. They also suggest implementing a tiered system to better categorize success, such as distinguishing between a "hit" and a "smashing success".
Full Transcript
[00:00]
So I would love to know from you at home, in your opinion, what is considered a hit now?
[00:05]
What is considered a flop?
[00:06]
I would love to know those numbers because does it change with the budget of a film?
[00:13]
So if you make like a five-knit at Freddy's, for example, which I know is based on some IP,
[00:17]
and the budget is where it is, that may like 80 million opening weekend, I believe.
[00:22]
So obviously that's a hit, but what is it proportional to budget?
[00:26]
So if you have a $300 million movie, the hit label has to be up,
[00:30]
or can we just say that there's a bar of a hit?
[00:42]
Hey, Keen Aliveurs, welcome to another coffee with Keen Alive.
[00:45]
I don't know, is that could be our name now?
[00:47]
Coffee with Keen Alive? Keen Alive was coffee?
[00:49]
I don't know.
[00:50]
Anyway, head of development here at John Schram.
[00:53]
Danny Murray.
[00:54]
C.E.
[00:54]
Yes.
[00:55]
All right, I didn't have to like say, into my right or left, but,
[00:58]
I'm just perfect.
[00:59]
Yeah.
[01:00]
How you doing?
[01:01]
Good for a little climbing.
[01:02]
That was so climbing.
[01:03]
I know.
[01:04]
It was on AC's.
[01:05]
Yeah, I'm sorry about that.
[01:07]
We have a cool topic today.
[01:09]
I love getting into conspiracy theories and just kind of like riffing on stuff.
[01:15]
So F1 premiered this weekend.
[01:18]
Yeah.
[01:18]
To the roar.
[01:19]
That's all I kept, by the way, all I kept reading was roaring and roaring and
[01:24]
to a tune of 55 million domestically.
[01:26]
And all I kept reading was, it's a hit.
[01:29]
It's a hit.
[01:30]
And I'm not be thinking about what is a hit nowadays, what used to be a hit.
[01:35]
Because then I thinking, you know, like the flash in Indiana Jones that came out
[01:41]
within the last two years, the flash, for example, made 55 million.
[01:44]
And that was labeled a flop.
[01:45]
Indiana Jones and Dial Destiny, I think, was 60 million labeled a flop.
[01:50]
Why is F1 labeled a hit now?
[01:53]
And is there media bias going on with certain films?
[01:57]
Or is it just the target is moving now on what a hit is?
[02:00]
And that's what we're going to be talking about today.
[02:02]
Yeah, I mean, but you didn't see the film yet.
[02:04]
I wanted to see it yesterday.
[02:05]
I couldn't see it.
[02:08]
I mean, I guess it is great.
[02:10]
Like it'll probably at least make its money back.
[02:12]
And it's a, you know, like somewhat adult racing.
[02:18]
So racing, racing journal temple?
[02:20]
Yeah.
[02:20]
No, I mean, original film should be celebrated.
[02:22]
I'm happy.
[02:23]
Yes, it's leading the pack in the box office.
[02:26]
Yeah.
[02:27]
My personal conspiracy is it seems like Apple did not have another film slated for the rest of the year
[02:33]
or 2026, I think.
[02:36]
And there was some rumblings that if this bombs the way that Napoleon or Killers did,
[02:42]
maybe they just focus on television and stop producing films.
[02:47]
I think part of the trades going so gong ho on this is that they really want Apple to invest in film.
[02:56]
And they want them to buy one of the now like junk stock studios.
[03:01]
So that, man, you really don't need fun to get seriously here.
[03:04]
Okay.
[03:04]
Yeah, that's why I think they want to happen.
[03:06]
Could be, but I mean, that does that influence media bias.
[03:09]
That's really interesting to me.
[03:11]
That's a cool theory.
[03:12]
I don't know if you want to think about that.
[03:13]
We're going to see one day Apple buy one of brothers and you're going to be like,
[03:16]
heard it here first.
[03:18]
What do you think with that?
[03:19]
I don't know.
[03:20]
I think my guttus telling me it's just a moving target.
[03:24]
Look, when I was growing up in the days of like early Marvel or, you know,
[03:29]
like 100 million was kind of like that was kind of the thing.
[03:32]
It was like if you made over 100 million opening weekend, that was a hit.
[03:35]
Or I mean, 50 didn't seem that high back then on certain things.
[03:40]
So to hear in 2025 with the inflation and the dollar, etc.
[03:46]
How is it?
[03:46]
All the screens, 55 million really?
[03:49]
That's that's domestically a hit.
[03:51]
And like I get it like F1 is huge overseas.
[03:54]
This will probably make tons of money internationally.
[03:58]
But I'm really interested more or less in the domestic because that's like where we as,
[04:02]
you know, US citizens are watching film.
[04:05]
I want to see people going and supporting theaters.
[04:08]
But when you see something like 55 million being labeled as a hit,
[04:11]
I scratch my head thinking, wow, like this is really changed.
[04:15]
And like what is it mean for cinema in recruitment future projects?
[04:20]
Because the P&A and this was probably huge.
[04:22]
I hear numbers of like this cost 300 million dollars, which I don't know.
[04:26]
I mean, tax incentives.
[04:27]
We can chop that down.
[04:28]
But 55 million just seems like not a lot for a Brad Pitt Apple produced hugely advertising
[04:36]
market film.
[04:37]
I don't know.
[04:37]
I almost wonder if even if this film, you know,
[04:40]
ends at say like 400 worldwide or like 500 right.
[04:44]
And it maybe doesn't even hit its break even point.
[04:47]
A part of me also like thinks we're like the only Surefire bet in media moving forward
[04:54]
is going to be like life sports probably.
[04:56]
I wonder if, you know, like Surefire like all the media writes the show lie.
[05:02]
Like, you know, the most powerful person in media is Roger Gidell.
[05:06]
Right.
[05:08]
I do wonder if that's part of it is like they're trying to seep their way into
[05:14]
life sports through this.
[05:15]
Sure.
[05:16]
And that may be on their master plan list.
[05:19]
But more like I'm more interested personally in the media.
[05:23]
Yeah.
[05:24]
I mean, we just went over this before we got on camera.
[05:26]
Yeah, yeah.
[05:27]
Hit roar hit roar.
[05:28]
It's all we read.
[05:29]
Yeah.
[05:30]
Whereas like the flash 55 million flop in an angel and 60 million flop.
[05:34]
Lightyear 50 million flop black Adam 67 flop.
[05:37]
Turnles 71 million flop.
[05:39]
Mm hmm.
[05:39]
Why are those getting flopped labels and this a hit?
[05:42]
I mean, is it the is it the foreign?
[05:44]
Is it the potential?
[05:45]
Mm hmm.
[05:46]
I just find it really interesting.
[05:47]
And I know the per screen average to be fair to F1 is higher than these.
[05:51]
Yeah.
[05:52]
So but not by much 2000 more per screen, which does add up.
[05:55]
But then wicked, for example, which was a huge hit was like 29,000 per average screen.
[06:00]
Where this was 15.
[06:02]
I just I just the I guess we're so quick to label an original film a hit.
[06:07]
Oh, they like they try to push black bag, right?
[06:10]
Which sorry, Sotomberg love your work wasn't a good film.
[06:13]
It wasn't.
[06:14]
It was very mad.
[06:16]
And they were like, why is no one going to see black bag?
[06:18]
This movie's awesome.
[06:19]
Like, yeah, I had some cool scenes and like it looked great.
[06:21]
And the music was it was so empty and vacant.
[06:24]
I just I would have walked out.
[06:26]
But why does this get the pass?
[06:30]
And not other films.
[06:31]
And I just find it just an interesting conversation.
[06:34]
I do wonder if because you know, sometimes what what marks ahead is like,
[06:39]
it's not something that you could even quantify, but then in like the first week.
[06:43]
Yeah.
[06:43]
And you could like feel the legs like I think centers, for example,
[06:46]
I think it's domestic first week was like under 50.
[06:49]
But of course, it's like it was higher.
[06:51]
I feel like 60s is in my head for some reason, but I'm always wrong.
[06:55]
But like the, you know, obviously it's budget was like a third of F1.
[07:00]
But you know, immediately after it came out, there was like some blend of,
[07:04]
you know, it kind of roared past expectations.
[07:07]
And it, you know, everyone was talking about it.
[07:11]
And you just knew it would have legs, which it did.
[07:13]
Same thing with wicked, where I mean, I'm not sure if it's just a New York thing,
[07:18]
but when that came out, that's all anyone was talking about for like, you know, weeks.
[07:23]
My girlfriend saw it like nine times in theaters or something crazy.
[07:28]
Like I'm not sure if this will have those kind of legs,
[07:32]
but I guess we'll see.
[07:33]
Yeah. So centers was 45 and a half.
[07:36]
Sure.
[07:36]
So 10, again, but not a huge star, like a Brad Pitt, not the marketing push.
[07:43]
I mean, Michael B. Jordan to be fair.
[07:45]
Not a, not a huge star.
[07:47]
He's not at pit level.
[07:48]
A lot of his starring vehicles outside of Creed or a Black Panther, for example,
[07:55]
like didn't do very well.
[07:56]
Like he's, to me, I love him.
[07:58]
I think he's a fantastic actor.
[08:00]
The jury's still out whether he can hold a film like a Brad Pitt can and has through his career.
[08:05]
So I just, it's just really, really interesting to me that this is labeled ahead.
[08:08]
And other films get a pass, you know, but I think this, I think more to the point is,
[08:13]
we are in a post-COVID world and the box office numbers are not what they were pre-COVID.
[08:20]
They're not going to maybe ever get there unless movies become better.
[08:26]
I haven't seen F1s.
[08:28]
I'm assuming it's going to be like, okay, but I don't hear the buzz.
[08:32]
Like you said with wicked or centers.
[08:33]
I don't hear it.
[08:34]
Yeah.
[08:34]
No one's, all my friends at start are like, it was fine.
[08:38]
There's some cool sequences, but no one's like, wow, that blew me away.
[08:42]
Yeah.
[08:43]
You know, whereas like some of the movies that are comparable maybe in budget,
[08:46]
like a lesser degree, some of the earlier mission possible, people leave saying,
[08:50]
oh my god, did you see that stunt that Tom Cruise did?
[08:52]
Buh, buh, buh, buh, buh.
[08:53]
We don't hear that with this guy.
[08:54]
I kind of hear like, all right.
[08:56]
It does feel like my guess is that it's being labeled ahead because
[09:00]
it, you know, the positive,
[09:04]
general first week outlook, the fact it wasn't a flop is going to permit them to make more films.
[09:11]
So this is that's what it is.
[09:12]
It's a different business model than a standard distributor, right?
[09:15]
The streamers operate with different rules because they have unlimited money.
[09:19]
So I would love to know from you at home, in your opinion, what is considered a hit now?
[09:25]
What is considered a flop?
[09:26]
I would love to know those numbers because does it change with the budget of a film?
[09:33]
So if you make like a five-knit at Freddy's, for example, which I know is based on some IP,
[09:37]
and the budget is where it is, that may like 80 million opening weekend, I believe.
[09:42]
So obviously that's a hit, but what is it proportional to budget?
[09:46]
So if you have a $300 million movie, the hit label has to be up,
[09:50]
or can we just say that there's a bar of a hit?
[09:52]
I don't know, it's interesting.
[09:53]
I mean, I was assuming it has to be correlated with budget.
[09:56]
Yeah, I mean, it's supposed to be like 2.5 times, right?
[09:58]
Because it doesn't really.
[10:00]
I don't know. Like, friendship, the, you know, film,
[10:03]
the Tim Robbins and Paul Rudd film, which I saw and like was fun.
[10:09]
Didn't love it, but I thought it was fun, and it was too dense and there's hilarious moments.
[10:13]
Yeah.
[10:13]
That was labeled a pseudo hit because of the fact that the budget was lower,
[10:18]
and it did quite well on the slow release rollout of the film.
[10:23]
I think it was like only playing in four cities, and it was doing super business on the
[10:27]
perspiring averages.
[10:28]
But yeah, I don't know, it's just interesting.
[10:31]
I mean, I'm happy F1 is a hit, I guess.
[10:34]
I don't know.
[10:34]
I still feel like the story's probably six or seven out of 10,
[10:37]
and I feel like we could do better in that department,
[10:39]
but we'll take the wins where we can in this market.
[10:44]
But now like with next year's film, the Odyssey,
[10:47]
Nolan's film, like, you know, it's going to be a way above it.
[10:50]
I don't make like a...
[10:51]
So then, what is that?
[10:52]
Super hit.
[10:52]
What do we label?
[10:53]
Something that does over 100 now.
[10:54]
There's got to be another threshold.
[10:56]
If we're going to keep using the word hit gratuitously,
[10:58]
I think we need to change
[11:00]
the tiers, like, smashing success.
[11:03]
Something has to change.
[11:04]
We can't label hit from like 20,250 million opening we can.
[11:09]
We can.
[11:09]
We can.
[11:09]
I think we should have tiers.
[11:11]
I'm all about tiers.
[11:12]
Or, you know, I think it also just depends on like budget and
[11:17]
like the surprise of it, you know, like,
[11:20]
again, sinners was like...
[11:23]
I think people were talking about it,
[11:25]
leading up to it.
[11:27]
By all accounts and like the
[11:29]
Warner rollout of
[11:31]
Aux-Ware films they had,
[11:32]
I feel like people were talking about that one probably the least.
[11:35]
And it unquestionably did the best.
[11:39]
They had the biggest cultural imprint.
[11:41]
So everyone at home would love to hear from you.
[11:43]
What is a hit?
[11:44]
Should the Barbie move?
[11:44]
Should we have different tiers?
[11:46]
What's a flop?
[11:47]
Hit us up.
[11:47]
We'd love to know what y'all think of what a hit is.
[11:51]
And, you know, where we go from here
[11:54]
as a box office metric.
[11:56]
And for those who want to create the next hit at Keenalime,
[11:59]
we have our script-to-screen competition coming to a close next Friday.
[12:03]
Crazy.
[12:04]
Amazing.
[12:04]
We cannot wait.
[12:05]
Cannot wait to get into another film.
[12:07]
So please go to Keenalime.com,
[12:09]
read and rate, all three screenplays.
[12:11]
Tell us what you think.
[12:12]
Reboat your favorite.
[12:13]
And then we're going to make it a hit,
[12:16]
a smash of success.
[12:17]
I don't know.
[12:18]
We're going to...
[12:18]
It'll be...
[12:18]
We're going to cry.
[12:19]
We're going to cry.
[12:20]
Are you serious?
[12:20]
We're going to roar into theaters.
[12:23]
It's going to be great.
[12:23]
And be a hit.
[12:24]
But who does the Brad Pitt and the team?
[12:26]
For F1.
[12:28]
Congratulations.
[12:29]
Yeah.
[12:29]
And I'm not being sarcastic.
[12:30]
I really mean that.
[12:31]
Congratulations.
[12:32]
But go to Keenalime.com,
[12:33]
read and vote.
[12:35]
What's it?
[12:36]
Oh my god.
[12:37]
I'm Danny.
[12:38]
John's.
[12:39]
Thank you so much.
[12:40]
And we'll see you soon.
