The Changing Summer Cinema Game | Kinolime Podcast Episode 16

Show Notes

The video provides an analysis of the summer box office performance, identifying a decline and questioning the quality of recent theatrical releases. Summer Box Office Overview: The total summer box office earnings, defined as the period from the first weekend of May through Labor Day, reached $3.67 billion. This total represents a slight decrease from the $3.68 billion earned in 2024 and is lower than the $4 billion generated during the 2023 "Barbenheimer" summer. Analysis of Performance: The speakers observe that while many films performed adequately, there was a lack of "true standout" movies that captured the zeitgeist. Sinners is highlighted as a rare exception, noted for being a film that audiences were eager to re-watch. Other films such as Superman, Thunderbolts, and Fantastic 4 were described as "fine," but lacked the impact of past major hits. Reasons for the Box Office Dip: Quality Concerns: The speakers argue that the industry is failing to produce enough "great" films for wide theatrical release, often settling for "safe bets" rather than taking creative risks. Market Maturity: International markets, particularly in Asia, are increasingly prioritizing their own local films over Hollywood blockbusters. Changing Audience Habits: The rise of streaming, economic factors affecting consumer confidence, and the need for films to be "must-see" events are contributing to the decline. Large Format Preference: There is a growing trend toward large-format experiences like IMAX as a way to incentivize audiences to visit theaters rather than waiting for streaming. Future Outlook: The speakers express hope for an industry recovery with upcoming releases, including Wicked, Zootopia, and other end-of-year films. The closing sentiment emphasizes a need for filmmakers to innovate, take risks, and push the boundaries of storytelling to earn the time and money of the audience.

Full Transcript

[00:00]

were at a precipice point with the film industry.

[00:02]

I think as filmmakers, you really,

[00:05]

we all gotta go into our like, you know,

[00:07]

chest of tools and like, we gotta just make better films.

[00:10]

I don't even know why he's an analogy,

[00:12]

but like we gotta go in and like,

[00:14]

pull it out that we'll push it,

[00:17]

whether it's like sort of an indie Renaissance

[00:19]

where we're making more intimate movies

[00:22]

on a lower budget and they're being self-distributed.

[00:24]

I don't know, but something,

[00:26]

I feel like something has to change.

[00:28]

These numbers are fine, but I don't know.

[00:29]

I don't want fun.

[00:30]

All right, welcome.

[00:32]

We are here today to talk about,

[00:34]

well actually happy Labor Day first and foremost,

[00:36]

we're in studio working on Labor Day.

[00:38]

You're supposed, I mean, you're supposed to Labor.

[00:40]

You're supposed to Labor Day.

[00:41]

It's the whole point of the day is.

[00:42]

Thank you, Oleg.

[00:43]

No, we did this, we did this out of the goods in some of our hearts,

[00:45]

because we wanted to bring you the life updates of Labor Day numbers,

[00:49]

of the box office,

[00:50]

because our topic today is to talk about the end of the summer

[00:54]

and analyze the films and the movies and the box office numbers,

[00:57]

and how we did.

[00:59]

So the LA Times have an article this morning

[01:01]

that released the official numbers.

[01:02]

So $3.67 billion this summer.

[01:05]

So just so we know for everyone at home,

[01:07]

the summer box office is loosely defined

[01:10]

as the first time we've ever seen a box office

[01:13]

that's been in the office for a long time.

[01:15]

So we're going to talk about the first time

[01:17]

the summer box office is loosely defined as the first weekend of May

[01:21]

through the end of Labor Day.

[01:23]

That's from winning crash, I just can't remember why it's still Labor Day.

[01:26]

So $3.67 billion for the box office,

[01:30]

a touchdown from last year,

[01:32]

last year's numbers were $3.68 in 2024.

[01:35]

And of course, we had the Barbonheimer summer of 2023,

[01:38]

which was I think $4 billion.

[01:40]

So again, interesting trend to see, right?

[01:44]

The economy seems to be doing better.

[01:47]

Some people say the little more money in the pocket.

[01:50]

You have a lot of films that did fine,

[01:52]

but no true standout movie.

[01:54]

And that's kind of what I want to,

[01:55]

I want to talk about today is what happened to the standout summer box office hit?

[01:59]

Now I don't want to talk about hits.

[02:00]

We did that in a previous video.

[02:02]

But the summer box office like that just took you by storm.

[02:06]

Now I would argue, sinners was that first film in a while that was classified as a...

[02:13]

I don't know when the release date is,

[02:14]

but let's just say that it's there.

[02:16]

Sure.

[02:17]

Well, or at least in the last year,

[02:18]

sinners was the film that most people went out for.

[02:20]

And they were rewatching.

[02:21]

We did a video.

[02:22]

We were on the street interviewing people in Lincoln Center.

[02:24]

They were just like, they've seen it four or five times in a row.

[02:26]

It's incredible.

[02:27]

I love that about cinema that it could do that.

[02:29]

But Superman, fine.

[02:33]

Thunderbolts was fine.

[02:35]

I don't know if that's summer.

[02:37]

I know, fantastic for fine.

[02:38]

It was a lot of fine.

[02:40]

But no, great.

[02:41]

No like, you know, deadpool Wolverine people coming out,

[02:44]

going bananas for the Mavericks of the world.

[02:47]

And I wonder that the reason for the box office dip is, in my opinion,

[02:53]

we just don't make great films anymore.

[02:56]

That we release theatrically in a wide audience.

[03:00]

Well, there is that.

[03:03]

Because you're right.

[03:04]

I mean, it's like we were talking before we got on,

[03:06]

but in general, like,

[03:08]

as pretty much every industry has seen in the last like five to 10 years,

[03:13]

like it's Feaster Famine.

[03:15]

Like you are either a standout, huge hit,

[03:20]

or your business crumbles for the most part.

[03:23]

Like there's way less room for kind of like, you know,

[03:28]

in the 90s, you would see a lot of long theatrical movies.

[03:32]

And even if something didn't do well immediately,

[03:35]

maybe it was a standout at Blockbuster.

[03:38]

You don't have that anymore.

[03:39]

You're either in a immediate hit or your film

[03:42]

will probably not recoup in the same way.

[03:45]

Yeah, it's very quick to like, you know, do the guillotine take the head off.

[03:49]

But again, I just go back to,

[03:51]

we're not making great movies as we used to anymore.

[03:55]

We just don't see it.

[03:56]

Now, you see every movie under the sun,

[03:58]

you're always out there,

[03:59]

and there are great movies being made,

[04:01]

but we're not being distributed

[04:03]

to the larger theater chain that most of the country has access to.

[04:08]

Also, the streaming is definitely an option that takes away

[04:11]

from people gone in the box office.

[04:12]

I think filmmakers have to earn the respect,

[04:15]

the time and the money of the audience,

[04:18]

more now than ever.

[04:19]

You just can't throw shit at the wall and let it stick.

[04:21]

You really have to make a truly great film.

[04:23]

If you're going to stand down and have that big zeitgeist pushing hit,

[04:27]

you know, break in ceiling, et cetera.

[04:29]

And we're just not seeing that.

[04:30]

Everything I saw the summer was just fine.

[04:32]

It was fine.

[04:33]

I didn't leave gone.

[04:34]

I'm going to book rewashed that again, except for sinners.

[04:37]

I think a big part of that, like,

[04:39]

my three reasons for probably the erosion

[04:43]

a bit of the box office this summer is like,

[04:46]

probably some combination of international,

[04:49]

particularly Asian markets, like maturing,

[04:53]

in their own film markets.

[04:54]

Yeah.

[04:55]

Like in Vietnam, the box office used to pretty much

[04:58]

so like the vast majority of the box office was US films.

[05:01]

Sure.

[05:02]

Big temples.

[05:03]

Now it's like 14%.

[05:04]

Yeah.

[05:05]

A lot of Asian markets are kind of following that same trend

[05:09]

where like, these are now habitual movie goers

[05:12]

who, you know, they have a lot more theaters than they ever had.

[05:15]

And they want to see their own stories on screen.

[05:18]

I think that's one, I think,

[05:22]

another big one has to be, I know you said otherwise,

[05:25]

but probably consumer confidence where like,

[05:28]

unless you live somewhere where you could easily have like an A list

[05:31]

or, you know, some sort of like regal pass,

[05:34]

if like, no one has the money to habitually go to the theaters.

[05:40]

But they will go if it's good.

[05:42]

It has to already be seen as a standout moment,

[05:47]

a must see event, which is kind of unfortunate

[05:51]

because like, that's not really how I think people should

[05:55]

be seeing it's like in some way what Scorsese said

[05:58]

a few years ago about Marvel where, you know,

[06:00]

it's like a theme park ride, you know.

[06:02]

But doesn't have to be an event or just,

[06:03]

can it just be a good movie?

[06:04]

You know, why can't I mean,

[06:05]

sinners wasn't, you think sinners was more of an event?

[06:08]

Well, it's why like, I max now is like ballooning.

[06:12]

You're gonna have three times as many I max theaters globally

[06:14]

in the next two years than we have now.

[06:17]

Because people now need large formats, big movies

[06:22]

in order to get, you know, an audience member

[06:26]

who would otherwise just wait for streaming

[06:28]

to go into theater.

[06:29]

Yeah.

[06:30]

I have to look up some data.

[06:31]

I don't have it on hand to kind of debate on that.

[06:33]

I do think though that the films that are being made

[06:36]

are just kind of mad.

[06:38]

They're a little bit more safe.

[06:39]

We've become like a industry of mediocracy or safe bets.

[06:44]

You know, they're not gonna take too many risks with something.

[06:47]

They're gonna like dabble here.

[06:48]

You know, everything just feels a bit constrained.

[06:50]

When I watch like it's safe and it's like fine.

[06:52]

It pushes the little bit.

[06:54]

But no one comes in.

[06:56]

And I think that's why like, you know,

[06:58]

cooler the coos is so great with his films.

[07:01]

Because he's such a fan of cinema.

[07:03]

Like you could see he breathes into every frame.

[07:05]

And his movies, despite that may have issues with some things

[07:08]

on the story side with sinners,

[07:10]

you can't argue that that film is like well crafted

[07:13]

and masterfully made.

[07:15]

So I don't know.

[07:16]

I just think we're making a lot of math.

[07:18]

It's gonna be interesting to see though

[07:20]

as the end of the year approaches.

[07:22]

Now we're going to the fall.

[07:24]

Q3, Q4.

[07:26]

End of Q3, Q4 of like the predictions.

[07:28]

I know we have Avatar coming out.

[07:30]

Wigid for good.

[07:32]

Zootopia. There was some other films.

[07:34]

One battle. I mean, it's kind of not probably do well.

[07:36]

But I'm so excited for that.

[07:38]

I got lots of money.

[07:39]

I know. Frank wants an Netflix.

[07:41]

But it's gonna be interesting if the box office can recover

[07:44]

for the end of the year.

[07:45]

I don't know.

[07:47]

We are at a, I keep saying this.

[07:49]

We're at a precipice point with the film industry.

[07:52]

I think this filmmakers, you really,

[07:54]

we all got to go into our like, you know,

[07:57]

chest of tools and like, we got to just make better films.

[08:00]

I don't even know why he's an analogy.

[08:01]

But like, we got to go in and like,

[08:03]

pull shit out that will push it.

[08:06]

Whether it's like sort of an indie renaissance

[08:09]

where we're making more intimate movies

[08:11]

on a lower budget.

[08:12]

And they're being self-distributed.

[08:14]

I don't know.

[08:15]

But something, I feel like something has to change.

[08:17]

These numbers are fine.

[08:18]

But I don't know.

[08:19]

I don't want fine.

[08:20]

I'm not gonna spend two hours and like,

[08:22]

50 bucks to take, you know, me and the Mrs. out

[08:25]

and like, go to the film.

[08:27]

Oh, this cinema.

[08:28]

For just fine.

[08:29]

Like, I want something good.

[08:30]

Like, time, I got a 20-month-old dude.

[08:32]

Like, I don't have time.

[08:33]

Like, I love movies.

[08:34]

I watch them all the time.

[08:35]

But like, my time should be earned.

[08:36]

Now, that doesn't mean you can't explore at home.

[08:39]

See movies that are kind of met constantly.

[08:42]

But like, it's just always in the theater.

[08:44]

You go to the theater and getting met all the time.

[08:47]

And I'm not a fan.

[08:49]

Six-month theatrical windows.

[08:52]

Yeah.

[08:53]

The Changing Summer Cinema Game | Kinolime Podcast Episode 16

Show Notes

Full Transcript

Competition

Company

Site Info

Resources