Our Oscar Predictions: Front-runners, Snubs & Sleepers | Kinolime Podcast Ep 39

Show Notes

🎙️ Episode Overview The KinoLime Podcast Returns: Hosts John Schramm and Danny Murray dive deep into the 2026 Academy Awards, breaking down the secretive history of the Oscars, the reality of award campaigns, and their ultimate picks for the year's biggest winners and snubs.

The Dark History of the Academy: Discover the true origin of the Oscars. In 1927, MGM co-founder Louis B. Mayer created the award show as a manipulative tactic to consolidate studio power, prevent Hollywood workers from unionizing, and keep his crew compliant by covering them in gold medals.

Inside Modern Oscar Campaigns: The hosts pull back the curtain on how studios spend millions of dollars manipulating public perception to influence the Academy's 10,000 elite voters—voters who, for the first time in history, are actually being forced to watch the nominated films.

🏆 Predictions, Winners, and Major Snubs Best Picture & Director Showdown: John and Danny fiercely debate the year's top films, clashing over Paul Thomas Anderson's massive American epic One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's masterfully crafted supernatural horror, Sinners.

The Blockbuster Campaign Machine: The hosts call out Apple's F1 for securing a Best Picture nomination driven entirely by campaign cash rather than cinematic merit.

Directing Snubs: The hosts lament the Academy ignoring masterful directorial swings, highlighting the egregious snubs of Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Bi Gan (Resurrection), and Kelly Reichardt (The Mastermind).

The Battle for Best Actor & Actress: While Timothée Chalamet is locked in as the favorite for his performance in Marty Supreme, the hosts advocate for Michael B. Jordan's astounding dual performance in Sinners and Ethan Hawke's mesmerizing, rambling turn in Richard Linklater's Blue Moon.

Subdued Acting Snubs: The podcast highlights how the Academy favors loud, bombastic performances over classical acting, calling out the unforgivable snubs of Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), and Kathleen Chalfant's heartbreaking portrayal of dementia in Familiar Touch.

Supporting Category Surprises: The hosts praise breakout performances from young actors, calling for recognition for David Jonsson (The Long Walk), Jacob Tremblay (Sovereign), and Odessa A'zion (Marty Supreme), while agreeing that Sean Penn and Teyana Taylor are heavy favorites in their respective categories.

Screenplay Highlights: The writing discussion champions the brilliant simplicity of Richard Linklater's Blue Moon and Eva Victor's Sorry, Baby, while acknowledging One Battle After Another as the unstoppable force in the Adapted Screenplay category (despite Park Chan-wook's snub for No Other Choice).

🎬 Make Your Own Movie with KinoLime The 3.0 Screenwriting Competition: The episode wraps with a massive announcement for aspiring writers and filmmakers: KinoLime's third annual feature film screenwriting competition is open from January 23rd to March 15th.

Turn Your Script Into a Feature: Anyone around the world can submit an English-formatted screenplay. The project with the most community votes gets fully funded and produced by KinoLime, following in the footsteps of previous winners The Waif and Mob Mentality, which are both entering production in 2026.

Full Transcript

[00:00]

The Oscars was all about consolidating studio power

[00:03]

and trying to stop Hollywood from creating unions.

[00:06]

It didn't work out.

[00:07]

The consolidation of power pretty much did.

[00:10]

And here we are 100 years later

[00:13]

with a really snazzy award show that all of us love.

[00:16]

[♪ OUTRO MUSIC PLAYING [♪

[00:26]

Welcome everyone to the Keena Line Podcast.

[00:29]

John Schram, I'm going to say your name for you, Danny Murray.

[00:32]

We're here on a balmy 32 degrees in New York City.

[00:35]

The sun is out. It feels like spring.

[00:38]

It's horrible. I'm so excited I'm getting out of the city.

[00:41]

Yeah, he's this guy's going to plane to L.A.

[00:44]

Directly after doing this because I cannot stand being in this

[00:48]

100 degree heat. He needs a hundred and ten degree heat

[00:50]

and we are setting degrees below that.

[00:53]

But Danny, so good to see you.

[00:55]

A lot's going on in the world of film,

[00:59]

specifically the Oscars, man.

[01:00]

The Oscars are coming up.

[01:01]

We have the Golden Gloves, which me, to me.

[01:05]

I don't know. What is it about?

[01:06]

I don't want to spend too much time on the Oscars,

[01:08]

because today episode we're going to get into the Oscars,

[01:10]

the history.

[01:11]

What goes behind an Oscar campaign and also our list of who's going to win,

[01:16]

who should win and the biggest snubs.

[01:18]

But I don't know. The Golden Gloves doesn't,

[01:21]

I mean, Ricky Dervace was the best thing in the last 15 years

[01:24]

regarding the Golden Gloves. In my opinion.

[01:26]

Yeah. I mean, it just feels like a warm up to the actual

[01:31]

kind of award show that anyone cares about.

[01:34]

It's like no one really cares about them.

[01:37]

It's not like a zeitgeist capturing thing in the same way anymore.

[01:41]

I will say that Ricky Dervace, thanks to,

[01:44]

I love stand-up comedy and comedians.

[01:46]

He really brought the, he resuscitated the Golden Gloves.

[01:50]

They were like, it was like, flat line.

[01:52]

He came in, gung, gung, gung, gung.

[01:55]

But we're going to talk about the Oscars today.

[01:57]

And Danny, I would love if you can educate the audience here.

[02:01]

A little history of the Oscars.

[02:04]

Yeah, the history of the Oscars is a very Hollywood story.

[02:08]

It's pretty incredible.

[02:09]

So essentially at the end of the 1920s,

[02:14]

there was a man, Louis B. Mayor, who, you know,

[02:17]

for about 10 years was the highest paid person in America.

[02:21]

He's the co-founder of MGM Studios.

[02:23]

He is one of the essentially institutional creators

[02:28]

of the Hollywood system.

[02:29]

Think Barton Fink, you know, where everyone is this kind of

[02:32]

in an assembly line doing what these fixers tell them to do.

[02:35]

I love that. And also like, I love that they have a middle initial.

[02:38]

Right.

[02:39]

I should be Johnny Schram.

[02:41]

You should be Danny DeMurray, whatever it is.

[02:42]

Yeah, you know, it's just like David O. Selznick,

[02:45]

the greatest independent film producer ever.

[02:47]

It's not because people wore top hats, right?

[02:49]

And like, like, bathed and shaved and like,

[02:52]

yeah, ready.

[02:53]

Yeah, I like a close shave every day.

[02:55]

Every day.

[02:56]

Sorry, I mean, those days are gone.

[02:58]

I'm going to bring back the initial.

[03:00]

Well, yeah, so look, this guy, you know, with this top hat

[03:02]

in his pro, you know, like Monopoly man mustache,

[03:05]

essentially what happened is he, you know,

[03:08]

he was not a big fan of worker revolutions and worker,

[03:14]

you know, you know, like people co conspiring to have better

[03:18]

conditions.

[03:19]

He wanted the jungle in large part.

[03:21]

He wanted the capitalist jungle.

[03:23]

He comes from he was born in Russia,

[03:25]

left right before the Soviet revolution and decided that I can never

[03:32]

let even a sliver of those thoughts come through my studio.

[03:36]

So what ends up happening is in the 1920s, he decides,

[03:41]

I'm going to be the king of this system.

[03:43]

I'm going to build a palace on the beach in Santa Monica.

[03:47]

And the kind of quotes he's getting for how long it's taking to,

[03:50]

to build this palace or insane because this is absurd.

[03:53]

I'm just going to have my studio guys build it.

[03:55]

We build palisets in a week.

[03:58]

I'll have them do it in six weeks.

[04:00]

I want this done now.

[04:01]

However, those crew guys had just formed a union.

[04:06]

The first Hollywood major union and said, Hey man, we could do this,

[04:11]

but it's going to cost you a fortune more than you want.

[04:13]

And then his days back in Russia, you know,

[04:16]

it's all started coming back to me.

[04:17]

Oh God, no, this can't happen.

[04:20]

This can't happen.

[04:21]

So what he decides is whatever happens, we cannot have producers,

[04:27]

writers, actors, the rest of the technicians, we cannot have them unionized.

[04:32]

I need to consolidate power.

[04:34]

So the idea he comes up with in 1927, a year after this debacle with his house is

[04:41]

Amphus, the Academy, motion pictures of arts and sciences, right?

[04:46]

How and how can we kind of put everyone together, give them awards,

[04:50]

his exact words were, I found the best way to handle filmmakers was to hang

[04:55]

metals all over them.

[04:56]

If I got them cups and awards, they killed themselves to produce what I wanted.

[05:01]

So the entire idea is he creates this award show to just cover everyone in gold.

[05:07]

And who here you go, that's like getting all the back end points.

[05:10]

It's like a bond villain.

[05:12]

Yeah.

[05:12]

And again, it didn't end up working out, right?

[05:14]

Like, so it's past the whole, no, it's palace got built in six weeks.

[05:18]

He actually paid his crew guys under the table and then outsource most the

[05:23]

laborers like whatever she, where is Santa Monica?

[05:27]

I don't know where, but like on the beach, I'm probably near like third street

[05:30]

prom, not my guess.

[05:32]

But regardless, these awards are created to circumvent Hollywood creating

[05:38]

unions.

[05:39]

Didn't work out.

[05:39]

But what he got from it and the first ever Oscars, which by the way, we're

[05:46]

named because when they're building the stash, what the librarians like that

[05:49]

looks like my uncle Oscar, that's where the name comes from.

[05:53]

I love that.

[05:54]

But essentially steeped in tradition and, you know, myth.

[05:57]

Yeah, the entire meaning, lots of meaning.

[06:00]

It was five bucks to get in.

[06:02]

It was like 270 like big wigs.

[06:05]

And then Charlie Chaplin starts doing terrible things and they're like,

[06:08]

oh, this is actually important.

[06:09]

We need this for the prestige of Hollywood.

[06:11]

We need to make it.

[06:13]

Hollywood feel like a big, important prestige is the thing to the public.

[06:16]

So essentially long story short, the Oscars was all about consolidating studio

[06:20]

power and trying to stop Hollywood from creating unions.

[06:25]

It didn't work out.

[06:26]

The consolidation of power pretty much did.

[06:28]

And here we are a hundred years later with a really snazzy award show that all of us

[06:34]

love that celebrate the rich and famous in their rich and famous ways.

[06:37]

And exactly what I got about.

[06:39]

It's my favorite.

[06:39]

I like clapping and I like eating the popcorn.

[06:42]

And I like.

[06:42]

I do, you know, when I when I was starting out, even like when I was younger,

[06:45]

I loved the Oscars.

[06:46]

I love just picking and, you know, like going against like my friends and we'd have

[06:51]

like little pools and who, you know, we've got a few bucks.

[06:54]

You're degenerate gamblers, but besides that,

[06:58]

the snubs really get me, you know what I mean?

[07:01]

Like or the Oscars that like, you know, I'm sorry, no offense to Leo,

[07:04]

but like winning for the Revenant, like really bothered me because he just

[07:07]

crawled around on his hands and knees for two hours and they gave him an Oscar.

[07:10]

And I get it because he's Leo and he's been nominated so many times.

[07:13]

He got to give him the Oscar.

[07:15]

But there's been a lot of snubs through the years.

[07:18]

And we're going to go into kind of our snubs list.

[07:20]

But do let's just start.

[07:21]

Let's just get into it.

[07:22]

Right.

[07:23]

Let's talk about the major category.

[07:24]

So we're going to start out with best picture, best director, best actor,

[07:28]

best actress, best supporting actor, best supporting actress, best original

[07:32]

screenplay, best adapted screenplay.

[07:34]

So as a kid, love betting on the Oscars.

[07:36]

It's great.

[07:37]

And we're going to get into that in a second.

[07:38]

But let's go into a little bit about how these films become Oscar contenders

[07:43]

or nominate because it's not just based on the arts here.

[07:46]

Let's talk about the campaign because it is unfortunately it's all about the

[07:50]

Kashish, right?

[07:51]

Like Oscar campaigns.

[07:53]

So give us a little background on that.

[07:54]

Well, it's super fun.

[07:55]

You know, this is actually my first year that I'm being invited to a lot of like

[07:59]

four year consideration screenings and events.

[08:02]

And it's all great fun.

[08:05]

This is also the first year in history.

[08:07]

And I don't know how they're going to actually enforce this.

[08:10]

I don't think they will.

[08:11]

But it's the first year they're actually making Oscar voters.

[08:14]

There's 10,000 of them.

[08:16]

They're telling them you guys need to watch these movies this year.

[08:19]

Oh, yeah.

[08:19]

I'm just watching.

[08:20]

It's the first time in history that they're making these people actually watch the movies.

[08:25]

Do we know if they even exist these voters?

[08:27]

Are they like to see these people?

[08:29]

You know, if you go to a snazzy restaurant in New York or in LA and you see someone

[08:34]

like smacking their waiter's hand and then like talking about celebrity, it's probably one

[08:38]

of those guys.

[08:39]

So again, the entire idea, it's like 10,000 of the most prestigious like producer's

[08:44]

and then text writers, directors, actors have to watch the films about half of them

[08:49]

or watching these movies.

[08:50]

And then that kind of gets into what the campaign is, right?

[08:53]

So that the entire idea is like, as much as the best film should rise to the top, there's

[08:58]

so many movies and there is just not enough time for all these people to watch.

[09:03]

The studios invest a lot of money in what they think can grab the attention of these voters.

[09:10]

Yeah.

[09:11]

So essentially your job to campaign is like any political campaign, right?

[09:14]

You want to put the money out there, get into the public site guys who manipulate them

[09:19]

into thinking how you're thinking, my picture is the best, that screenplay, whatever, hoping

[09:23]

that the voter, when they do decide to vote, they remember all the different, you know,

[09:28]

radio ads or, you know, as in the newspaper, their home, nailing dress.

[09:32]

Yeah.

[09:33]

It's like people outside with a nice poster in their front lawn.

[09:36]

But it's much like actual, you know, our actual elections.

[09:40]

Like, well, you know, you present it to the public because you're not allowed to actually

[09:44]

speak to these voters directly.

[09:46]

Uh, it's actually decided by 10,000 hyper wealthy Hollywood elite.

[09:51]

So like much like all elections, it all comes down to, you know, the same little club

[09:55]

that we are not in.

[09:56]

Yeah, we're definitely not in the club, but we can definitely poke fun at the club.

[10:00]

We can.

[10:01]

We're going to play a little game here.

[10:02]

We're going to do who will win, who should win and who should have been nominated.

[10:07]

So I got my list.

[10:08]

You got your list ready?

[10:09]

Very excited about this.

[10:11]

Okay.

[10:12]

Let's get into it.

[10:13]

Well, should we start out with the, let's start out with the best picture right off the

[10:17]

bat.

[10:18]

Let's talk with who will win Danny?

[10:20]

Who will win best picture?

[10:22]

It's the, come on.

[10:23]

It's the only thing I've been talking about for, you know, five months.

[10:26]

It's my favorite movie of the year.

[10:27]

It's going to be one battle after another.

[10:28]

Abba.

[10:29]

It's going to be great.

[10:30]

Uh, and I'm so excited.

[10:32]

Abba's going to win.

[10:33]

Uh, yeah, I hate to say it.

[10:36]

Um, John, John, John's pick is going to be Abba right here.

[10:41]

It's great.

[10:42]

I'm excited.

[10:43]

It'll win.

[10:44]

It's fine.

[10:45]

Okay.

[10:46]

What's fine?

[10:47]

It's so sick of talking about one battle.

[10:48]

Now let's talk about who should have won.

[10:49]

Can I go first?

[10:50]

Yeah.

[10:51]

Who should win best picture?

[10:52]

It's just going to be one battle after another because I get like a, how often do you get,

[10:55]

like, you know, the big brat, like whatever, a 200 million dollar movie, some say 130.

[11:02]

Uh, that actually kind of lives up.

[11:05]

It's an American epic.

[11:06]

It's incredible.

[11:07]

I'm so excited.

[11:08]

I'm going to watch it all the time for the rest of my life.

[11:10]

And it's just one of those great American films.

[11:13]

I'm excited.

[11:14]

I don't want to say this, but I feel like this should win best picture because I really do feel

[11:21]

like this is probably the most complete film out of the, you know, like, I mean, I'm not

[11:26]

voting for F1.

[11:27]

One battle after another.

[11:28]

I didn't know how I got in F1.

[11:29]

But let's talk about that first.

[11:31]

Abba will probably pay a lot of money.

[11:32]

I love it.

[11:33]

This is exactly how campaigning works.

[11:35]

I think that's one as fine of an experience it was is best picture.

[11:41]

That's nuts.

[11:42]

Those Apple Awards campaigns are really nice.

[11:44]

They got the Kashish.

[11:45]

I'm going to say, sitters should win best picture.

[11:48]

Another great American epic movie.

[11:50]

It's an epic.

[11:51]

I say what the Cougs did on so many levels on that technically from the performances to score.

[11:58]

That to me is, that's the best picture of the year.

[12:01]

So I, but you love it too.

[12:03]

We have spoiled with a whole bunch of great American films.

[12:06]

But who should have been nominated, Danny?

[12:08]

That's what some snubs.

[12:10]

Yeah, I mean, like, there's two that come to mind to me.

[12:13]

Like the one that, and initially when I watched it, I did, I was like, oh, God, that kind of sucked.

[12:18]

And then it just lingered and lingered and lingered.

[12:20]

And I'm like, no, that was actually one of the best movies of the year.

[12:23]

I can't believe how incredible that was.

[12:25]

It's Kelly Rikard's The Mastermind.

[12:27]

It's like the first time anyone's really given her money to like, you know,

[12:32]

she makes, she made an anti-hice movie about kind of just like the lies of the American dream.

[12:40]

And it's like this just kind of slow burn where everything goes wrong.

[12:44]

It's just incredible beyond belief.

[12:49]

And you should watch it.

[12:50]

I don't want to spoil too much, but it's just a show, Connor.

[12:55]

Just being amazing for about two hours.

[12:58]

It'll rock your world.

[12:59]

And you might not like it.

[13:00]

And then you will keep thinking about it until you do.

[13:02]

I'm actually, I was going to go with a different film, but I'm going to go with yours.

[13:05]

I think that's probably the film that should have been nominated again, snub, sorry.

[13:10]

And I'm a Joshua Connerman having a, having a year.

[13:12]

He was like the best part of four really great movies this year.

[13:16]

I cannot wait to see this guy.

[13:19]

I'm passionate about this next category of best director.

[13:22]

I'm going to go first.

[13:24]

Who will win?

[13:25]

Fucking PTA, man.

[13:27]

You know, he's going to win for one battle after another.

[13:30]

And it is what it is.

[13:32]

I got nothing.

[13:33]

I can't stop that train from going.

[13:34]

It's great.

[13:35]

I'm so excited.

[13:36]

You know, pretty much like.

[13:38]

Is that your will win?

[13:39]

Of course.

[13:40]

I mean, it's a, you know, if the whole movie was just the hill scene, the car crash hill scene,

[13:46]

I can talk.

[13:47]

That would win best picture a lot.

[13:50]

It's amazing.

[13:51]

Who should win for me, the coobs, I mentioned it before.

[13:54]

He should win for best director.

[13:57]

What he did on this film from a directing standpoint is like truly remarkable.

[14:01]

The care, the tender love and care he put into that film and all the little details and nuances.

[14:08]

I mean, his, his discussion alone about format, you know, like, blew me away.

[14:13]

And I just can't say enough about, you know, Ron Coulier.

[14:16]

He's fantastic.

[14:17]

He should win for best director.

[14:19]

The, who's your should win?

[14:21]

I mean, ten out of no.

[14:22]

The one, you know, it's the history as PTA like there is enough scenes in that movie where you're like, Oh, yeah, this is a classic.

[14:29]

Like you watch it.

[14:30]

Yeah, it's a candid and a big industry.

[14:32]

Yeah, like a b movie.

[14:33]

Okay.

[14:34]

So true.

[14:35]

I'm hold on.

[14:36]

But I also want to say about the coos.

[14:37]

Ron Coulier's, you know, I think alone in any year where they're, you know, PTA doesn't make his best film.

[14:44]

I think the kind of like montage through the history.

[14:47]

Yeah, that alone should secure this was like, that alone.

[14:50]

at the joint and Oscar.

[14:52]

Yeah, that was one of the best scenes.

[14:54]

This to me was the biggest snub

[14:55]

from the who should have been nominated

[14:57]

for the best director.

[14:58]

I'm gonna go with Gimel D'Otoro.

[15:00]

I don't, dude, Frankenstein was close to...

[15:04]

Or Masterful.

[15:05]

Masterful.

[15:06]

Or directing.

[15:07]

I'm not talking about like, free of my film.

[15:08]

I'm talking about directing.

[15:08]

Like what he did on that film was really, really well.

[15:12]

I can't believe he's not even doing it.

[15:13]

Nominated.

[15:14]

That blows my mind.

[15:16]

Blows my mind.

[15:16]

Who's your, uh, should have been nominated.

[15:19]

I don't know, man.

[15:20]

I didn't, I don't know, Frankenstein,

[15:22]

like the minute it's like, I just don't, I don't care.

[15:26]

That's good.

[15:27]

But, boy, your boy, Lorde isn't that.

[15:29]

He was great.

[15:30]

I know.

[15:31]

He's always great, but...

[15:32]

Hi.

[15:33]

Who's your should have been nominated?

[15:34]

Mine was, uh, be gone, uh, for resurrection.

[15:38]

Yeah.

[15:39]

It is a three hour Chinese movie.

[15:43]

It's a movie that is just such an unbelievable swing.

[15:48]

And it just twists conventions and is so masterful as a piece of film direction.

[15:55]

That, like, it's the type of movie you watch and you think like, oh, yeah, we might kind

[16:00]

of be at the beginning of film.

[16:02]

Like, there's so much more to explore in this medium.

[16:06]

It is the type of movie that will just kind of blow your mind for what movie making can

[16:11]

be.

[16:12]

Uh, and then I'll just also throw a shout out because I think she should probably be

[16:16]

direct, you know, get a know every time she makes a movie, Kelly Rikard, uh, you know,

[16:22]

her movies are so slow and it's, she's just like the master of a really fascinating medium

[16:27]

that needs to come back and filmmaking.

[16:29]

And no campaign behind, unfortunately, we're very little.

[16:32]

No, but that's the problem.

[16:34]

Yeah.

[16:35]

Let's talk about people who don't have problems, best actor.

[16:38]

Uh, we got, got a lot of really high end.

[16:41]

This was the year for performances that were just bombastic.

[16:44]

They were big.

[16:45]

And it bothered me because two performances that are going to be in my snubs are on here.

[16:50]

We're more subdued in like classical acting, but we had the big shots.

[16:54]

So, uh, who will win?

[16:56]

I'm going T. Shay.

[16:58]

Uh, Timothy's child may is going to win.

[17:00]

Yeah.

[17:01]

He's going to win.

[17:02]

It's his year.

[17:03]

He's a stash.

[17:04]

He's great.

[17:05]

I mean, he's great.

[17:06]

He was great.

[17:07]

He was great.

[17:08]

He's great.

[17:09]

He's great.

[17:10]

I have nothing but love for him.

[17:11]

He's like the best campaigner.

[17:12]

I got that versus you.

[17:13]

Is that you're who will win?

[17:14]

Um, yeah.

[17:15]

I don't know.

[17:16]

I don't know.

[17:17]

It may go to Leo because of like the scandals around Marty's Supreme.

[17:19]

Yeah.

[17:20]

Um, so what's your pick?

[17:22]

I think I'll probably go to shall.

[17:24]

Okay.

[17:25]

So we'll agree.

[17:26]

Now, who should win?

[17:28]

Again, I guess I mean, camp centers right now.

[17:31]

I think Michael B. Jordan should win the Oscar this year.

[17:34]

And I don't know why, but he's, he's playing to himself.

[17:38]

Uh, he's playing to himself and they're really distanced and not in like,

[17:44]

over what like, uh, in really subtle ways, that like twins really would be.

[17:50]

Like, they kind of sound the same.

[17:52]

They move the same, right?

[17:54]

And there's like, again, like we all know identical twins from school that are like this

[17:58]

have spent all their time together.

[17:59]

Sure.

[18:00]

It's the same.

[18:01]

And like, there's other thoughts.

[18:02]

Yeah.

[18:03]

That you could, uh, like, identify it's them.

[18:05]

They have a natural propensity to be left handed.

[18:07]

But um, he, he was great.

[18:09]

Yeah.

[18:10]

Um, that's, is that you should have?

[18:12]

No, mine is, you know, I went to a Q&A.

[18:14]

With this actor, uh, to see this film.

[18:17]

Yeah, here we go.

[18:18]

And it was a type of movie as I'm watching it.

[18:20]

I'm just so enthralled by this performance.

[18:22]

And it's a type of movie you're like, uh, it's going to be such a shame when like this

[18:26]

doesn't get recognized.

[18:27]

Just saying it.

[18:28]

And I'm so happy it did.

[18:29]

Ethan Hawke and Dan is again, he is rambling.

[18:34]

It's kind of saying nothing.

[18:36]

It's like a classic link later Hawke movie.

[18:38]

But again, he's, uh, he is just rambling and rambling about nothing for two hours and

[18:43]

just slowly just kind of, uh, the film and the character just turns into something that's

[18:50]

really beautiful.

[18:51]

And over the top, but also subdued, it's amazing.

[18:55]

And he should win.

[18:56]

So these are the two besides my deal del Toro snub pick this, I, this I can't believe.

[19:01]

I'm going to give you two here for where, where should have been nominated.

[19:05]

My favorite to kill a Paul Mezcal in Hamnet.

[19:07]

How does he not get nominated for that?

[19:10]

He was mind blowing and do Joe and Katyn and train dreams.

[19:14]

Yeah.

[19:15]

These are subdued performances that aren't the big showy that we've seen in like the

[19:19]

centers in one battle.

[19:20]

This is like acting that's kind of been for the last, I don't know, 70 years.

[19:24]

So it's, it's more subtle in approach.

[19:27]

I'm really shocked that either have not been nominated.

[19:30]

And then that's something was like, they were like, should he be a best supporting right?

[19:33]

There was like a mix up in the categories, but, um, or campaigning.

[19:37]

I forget what I was reading about.

[19:38]

Who's your should have been nominated?

[19:40]

Yeah.

[19:40]

I mean, I guess it was quickly like, I agree with Gertan, but my problem is like, it feels

[19:45]

like Paul Mezcal's been playing like the same guy in every movie.

[19:49]

I think it's because his hairstyle doesn't change.

[19:52]

He learned his same haircut.

[19:53]

He's like always grieving.

[19:55]

Yeah.

[19:56]

It's like the weird, like dude, he's got great hair.

[19:58]

He's staring out the window like quietly like his bottom lip is tremor.

[20:02]

Everything he does.

[20:03]

But that's also George Clooney.

[20:05]

George Clooney plays himself and every.

[20:06]

Yeah, it's just, you know, he's playing Clark.

[20:08]

Grant plays himself in the role.

[20:10]

Okay.

[20:11]

But it's me.

[20:12]

It's not exciting.

[20:13]

But for me, the role I was, I knew it wasn't going to get a knob.

[20:16]

I think it should have is Joaquin Phoenix and Eddington.

[20:20]

Like it's a movie that we could have so much.

[20:22]

It's a good fit.

[20:23]

Yeah.

[20:24]

Sick of like who is very good.

[20:25]

He's very good at it.

[20:26]

He's very good in that.

[20:27]

But like, again, he, you know, he plays a guy you probably shouldn't like from the beginning.

[20:32]

And then you should hate it.

[20:33]

Like you just kind of love him and feel really empathetic whole time.

[20:37]

And he transforms into so many different people in that movie.

[20:42]

It's unbelievable.

[20:43]

That's a good pick.

[20:44]

Sign picked.

[20:45]

Sneaky pick.

[20:46]

I'm quite sad he didn't get a knob.

[20:47]

But I didn't do it for best actress.

[20:49]

Danny, who will win best actress?

[20:51]

Again, like hamnet to me is the type of movie that every year there's one of these at

[20:54]

the Oscars where it feels like it was made to make me angry when it went when it like

[20:59]

wins over more deserving movie.

[21:01]

I like, I'm getting flashbacks of Shakespeare love dude.

[21:03]

It's like again, a Shakespeare adaptation where everyone's crying like give me a break.

[21:07]

Like I don't care.

[21:08]

So you go, Jessie Buckley's gonna win.

[21:10]

She was great, but like it's not a performance that's exciting.

[21:13]

I concur.

[21:14]

We'll just go quickly on to who should win because I'm with you on the, the will win.

[21:19]

Who should win?

[21:20]

You know, to me, it's like, I feel like a one trick pony because like every year I'm

[21:26]

feeling like she should win.

[21:28]

I'm a stump for Bugonia.

[21:29]

Again, it's another, it's a pretty subdued.

[21:33]

Performance.

[21:34]

Um, that just kind of rocks my world by the end of it.

[21:39]

Yeah.

[21:40]

Love, love.

[21:41]

She's always, she's always so solid.

[21:43]

And he knows always very solid who is Roseburn.

[21:45]

That's my should win pick for if I had legs that kick you like the vulnerability, the

[21:51]

veracity of the role.

[21:52]

Like I've never seen Roseburn like that before.

[21:54]

So I was like, like, damn, you got my attention.

[21:58]

Um, she's fantastic.

[22:00]

D, who should have been nominated?

[22:02]

I think we're going to be in agreement here.

[22:04]

We probably won't be.

[22:05]

Uh, it's a movie that like pretty much no one saw a premiered at Venice last year.

[22:11]

And it just has like the best, it's the best performance of the year.

[22:17]

Bar none.

[22:18]

It's really sad that no one's seen it.

[22:19]

It's Kathleen Shelfont in familiar touch.

[22:22]

She plays an old lady who just got put into a assisted living center because she has

[22:27]

dementia.

[22:29]

And it is just like the most unbelievable kind of performance about kind of slowly slipping

[22:37]

away.

[22:38]

You're on the streets really unique.

[22:38]

It's amazing.

[22:39]

And you just love everyone in this movie so much because of her.

[22:44]

It's unbelievable.

[22:45]

Everyone should see it.

[22:46]

It's a travesty that no one did.

[22:48]

And she's not nominated.

[22:49]

This is also a travesty because I felt like this, they messed up on where they were trying

[22:54]

to push her into which category for my pick for you should have been nominated.

[22:58]

It's chase infinity for one battle after another.

[23:00]

Yeah, great.

[23:01]

Well, you can argue she's the leading actress based on screen time or you can argue that

[23:07]

she's supporting either way.

[23:08]

She's not from both.

[23:10]

So she was like so polished and so mature.

[23:16]

Like I'm like this actress blew me away on just how composed she like kicked Leo's ass

[23:23]

in their scenes.

[23:24]

Like he was, he looked like the novice compared to her.

[23:27]

She's like an instant like this is a superstar role, super star role, totally agree.

[23:32]

That supporting actor, we're probably going to be an agreement here.

[23:36]

Who will win?

[23:37]

Sean Penn.

[23:38]

I think it's going to be Benicio.

[23:39]

Don't worry.

[23:40]

The wind's been kicked under.

[23:43]

Interesting.

[23:44]

Okay, we've talked about one battle.

[23:45]

I'm going with Sean.

[23:46]

He's going to be so safe fucking movie.

[23:47]

Yeah.

[23:48]

Should win.

[23:49]

I love to hear your pick here.

[23:51]

Sean Penn.

[23:52]

I think it's one of the greatest supporting performances of all time.

[23:57]

I don't think he's going to win anymore because it'd be like his fourth Oscar.

[24:00]

I'm crazy.

[24:02]

But yeah, I think like lockdown is like one of the best performances I've ever seen in

[24:08]

my entire life.

[24:09]

I've seen the movie like six times now and not every time I find some new though.

[24:13]

I've never loved him.

[24:14]

I've never loved him.

[24:15]

I'm going to Delaware and Linda and sinners.

[24:17]

Really.

[24:18]

He was just so again, I didn't like sinners that much.

[24:22]

It's so funny that this is coming up now.

[24:24]

It's like I can tell that's where a film sits with you as I saw it when it came out.

[24:29]

May.

[24:30]

Going on almost a year now when it came out.

[24:32]

I didn't love it as much, but then as I was going through my list, I'm like, everything

[24:36]

sort of come back.

[24:37]

The sinners.

[24:38]

Delaware was fantastic.

[24:39]

I think he should win, but won't and should have been nominated.

[24:46]

I have two.

[24:49]

They both kind of fit the same mold, which is like a young actor that we kind of know.

[24:54]

That had their breakout role and no one really saw it coming.

[24:59]

Those for me is one David Johnson in the long walk.

[25:03]

You watch him in this movie and you're like, okay, this guy is a superstar.

[25:09]

He's an A-list actor.

[25:11]

And then his first kind of mature role, at least that I've seen, Jacob Tremblay was in

[25:17]

a smaller indie.

[25:18]

Nick Alferman called Sobbing.

[25:20]

He plays a teenager being radicalized by his dad.

[25:23]

He's fantastic.

[25:24]

Who this kid was amazing when he was seven.

[25:26]

And he's going to be amazing when he's seven.

[25:29]

This guy has it.

[25:30]

I think both of them should have been nominated.

[25:32]

Wasn't he also the kid in Wonder?

[25:35]

I think so.

[25:36]

He was fantastic.

[25:37]

He's fantastic.

[25:39]

I'm going to go again with Paul Mezcal.

[25:42]

I'm just putting it both because I really do think it's a travesty that he was bumped

[25:46]

off either or less.

[25:47]

He was fantastic.

[25:49]

So Paul Mezcal, you got my vote if I was an academy voting for you.

[25:54]

What's supporting who will win?

[25:56]

I think Will and Shod is Tiong Taylor.

[25:59]

Yeah.

[26:00]

I got an agreement there.

[26:01]

Not much to debate.

[26:02]

Who should win?

[26:03]

Yeah.

[26:04]

I think Tiong Taylor should win.

[26:07]

I'm obviously on the center's train here, but Woomim Musaku's performance, like again,

[26:13]

not a ton of screen time.

[26:14]

I talk about like, you know, God, I'm capable of saying this a tour to four.

[26:18]

It's like, you really was like this powerful performance that had layers within.

[26:23]

Like I felt her hold back.

[26:25]

So I felt her pain.

[26:27]

I felt where she's going.

[26:28]

Like, that's hard to do as an actor, right?

[26:31]

To like be able to evoke that many emotions or like instantly, you know, I just knew everything

[26:35]

about her.

[26:36]

Yeah.

[26:37]

So for that alone, she has my vote who should have been nominated?

[26:41]

I think it's pretty sad to me that Felicity Jones didn't get nominated for train dreams.

[26:46]

I thought she was like the emotional anchor of maybe the most emotional movie of the

[26:49]

year.

[26:50]

Yeah.

[26:51]

And it's pretty devastating to me.

[26:52]

I don't know.

[26:53]

I'm going to say who should have been nominated?

[26:55]

It's Odessa Zion from Marty Supreme.

[26:58]

Again, another young performance that just felt composed.

[27:02]

I mean, she's going against T-Shay in like a very big role.

[27:07]

And toe to toe every time.

[27:10]

Yeah.

[27:11]

Every time she handled that role and like, you felt her emotions.

[27:13]

I mean, again, I thought this was like a 50 year old, Merrill Streep in the form of

[27:19]

a 20-something year old body just crushing emotion and acting talent.

[27:24]

Nothing else to say.

[27:25]

I know I'm sorry.

[27:26]

Pamela.

[27:27]

I'm just.

[27:28]

Yes, I'm sorry you didn't get nominated.

[27:32]

Let's brush.

[27:33]

We're going to take our time.

[27:34]

I'm not kidding because it's about screenplays, but that's the original screenplay who will win.

[27:38]

I think it will be Seniors.

[27:40]

We're going to cream it.

[27:41]

Yeah.

[27:42]

You think.

[27:43]

No, I'm going to cream it.

[27:44]

I was shocked when Seniors got 16 gums.

[27:48]

That was a bit showering.

[27:50]

But Sean, if John was part of Mampons, they would have been 20.

[27:53]

No, but I mean, whenever I had to say, I maybe it was like, goes by the week, but I wasn't

[27:58]

so hot in the film until I really started thinking about I agree.

[28:02]

Cougs will win for best screenplay who should win for best screenplay.

[28:08]

Who do you have?

[28:09]

I'm going to go with the Cougs.

[28:10]

Should win.

[28:11]

It's like a double double.

[28:12]

It's Robert Kaplow, Richard Lincolette, or Blumon.

[28:15]

It's two hours of incoherent rambling.

[28:18]

That is one of the most important stories of the year.

[28:23]

It's super feed.

[28:24]

You know what, Ron?

[28:25]

We're going to do a little graphic here.

[28:28]

I want to erase my pick.

[28:29]

I want to go Blumon.

[28:30]

You're right.

[28:31]

You're right.

[28:32]

What he did.

[28:33]

I mean, I think Lincolette gets slept on in a, is that even a fucking word?

[28:41]

He gets passed on in terms of his writing ability.

[28:44]

We all know he's incredible behind the camera, but like his writing.

[28:48]

No, he's incredible.

[28:49]

He's insane that he can capture your attention with nothing.

[28:52]

In a just world, he would have two best picture norms.

[28:54]

Yeah, for this.

[28:55]

On change in my pick.

[28:56]

Lincolette, you got my vote.

[28:58]

And who should have been nominated for best original?

[29:01]

Yeah, so I guess mine would be there's a film not many people saw.

[29:05]

That was a cool film, independent spirit norms.

[29:09]

By first and filmmaker Constance Seng, believe it's how it's a name.

[29:14]

For Blue Sun Palace, it is an incredible film with probably the most striking midpoint

[29:20]

of the year.

[29:21]

It is really two movies about the kind of isolation of the immigrant experience in New York.

[29:29]

That will rock your world.

[29:31]

And it just has a command of the story in a way like I, like I've not seen this year.

[29:38]

In a just world, I think that will get enough.

[29:40]

Who do you have?

[29:41]

A sorry baby.

[29:42]

Okay.

[29:43]

Eva Victor, like again, Eva got snubbed of so many different.

[29:48]

And again, this was like a campaign thing.

[29:49]

I know Julia Roberts was trying to get her.

[29:51]

And he's a platform, but really like from acting to directing to writing, I'm going

[29:56]

to give Eva the snub for writing incredible story.

[30:00]

Again, so dude, it's not what the big, my master's screenplays that we're used to, like

[30:04]

from the acting perspective.

[30:05]

So I'm going with sorry baby.

[30:09]

Now our final category today, we're going to do best adapted screenplay, D.

[30:14]

You already know when it's going to win.

[30:16]

Well went should win.

[30:17]

Another PTA.

[30:18]

I'm with him on now to move on.

[30:20]

Who should win?

[30:22]

Who yet?

[30:23]

I got hammed it.

[30:25]

For, yeah, I think again, I was a big fan of the film.

[30:30]

And that's council's performance.

[30:32]

But you know, it's probably should win.

[30:35]

You think hammits about is screenplay than what battle off?

[30:38]

I do.

[30:39]

I'm not a huge fan of one battle left or another.

[30:41]

It's insane.

[30:42]

Fair enough.

[30:43]

Yeah, I mean, I think one battle left or another, obviously should win.

[30:46]

Okay.

[30:47]

And then what do you have should have been nominated?

[30:50]

I have.

[30:51]

I think like it's just, it's such a great, without spoiling much.

[30:55]

It's such a great story.

[30:57]

Probably the best one on the Sundance.

[30:59]

It's a love story.

[31:00]

And also simultaneously, just a story about friendship.

[31:02]

Two sets of identical twins.

[31:04]

Yeah.

[31:05]

And it will rock your world.

[31:06]

It's just like one of those really mature adult, like funny dramas that everyone claim

[31:19]

was for that we don't really get.

[31:22]

And I'm like, here it is.

[31:23]

And unfortunately, it did not get the type of shine show up.

[31:28]

But it's an incredible movie everyone should see.

[31:30]

We're going to go with best nominated.

[31:32]

It should have been nominated is no other choice.

[31:35]

Can you believe dude's never won a Oscar?

[31:38]

For sure.

[31:39]

Yeah.

[31:40]

Old boy, handmade in this movie, a million others.

[31:42]

And we know reasons why.

[31:43]

Buddy's a fantastic director, who I got to meet, you're in a half ago for an HBO premiere

[31:51]

of his T-Shop.

[31:52]

Oh, yeah.

[31:53]

That's amazing.

[31:54]

Yeah, he was amazing, by the way.

[31:55]

Fantastic.

[31:56]

Very core.

[31:57]

I did.

[31:58]

He's cordial brilliance, by the way.

[32:01]

So I'm going with no other choice snubbed from a lot of different categories.

[32:06]

But it is what it is.

[32:07]

Should have one best adapted.

[32:08]

Yeah.

[32:09]

And Academy is slowly becoming far more international.

[32:12]

And those people are watching movies too.

[32:15]

So hopefully next movie park, you'll find one.

[32:18]

You got mine about.

[32:19]

You got mine about.

[32:20]

If we forgot something, if you disagree with our picks, I know you're going to definitely

[32:24]

disagree with Danny's.

[32:25]

I want you to hit us up in the comments.

[32:29]

Let's have a talk.

[32:30]

Let's have a debate about what we potentially miss because we're not perfect.

[32:33]

But I feel like my list of solid Danny's suffers from the one battle after another sway.

[32:39]

But no, we love to hear from you.

[32:41]

Hit us up on KinoLine, wherever we are.

[32:44]

Instagram X.

[32:45]

I don't know.

[32:46]

The website.

[32:47]

Personal email.

[32:48]

Yeah, smoke signal.

[32:49]

Smoke signal.

[32:50]

Pop drop.

[32:51]

You got to face the bridge.

[32:52]

Yeah, wherever you could find a place.

[32:55]

We appreciate it.

[32:56]

And tell us if you tune in to the Oscars because I know we will be.

[32:59]

We're going to, let's do a pool.

[33:00]

I think we're going to do some boxes within the company.

[33:03]

We're going to do like a little pool.

[33:04]

That's amazing.

[33:05]

All right, great.

[33:06]

Yeah.

[33:07]

Thank you for tuning in everyone.

[33:08]

John Strand, Danny Murray.

[33:09]

Have a great week.

[33:10]

We'll see you next time.

[33:11]

That was great.

[33:12]

That was fun.

[33:13]

Yeah.

[33:14]

If you're a screenwriter filmmaker, you've got to listen up because here at KinoLine,

[33:16]

we're opening up our third annual feature film, 3.0 screenwriting competition, January

[33:20]

23rd to March 15th.

[33:22]

That means you a screenwriter or filmmaker get your movie made.

[33:26]

How amazing is that?

[33:28]

So our submission period opens January 23rd to March 15th.

[33:31]

So sharpen your pens, get your fingers ready, get that screenplay, polished and formatted

[33:36]

and submitted to KinoLine for open competition.

[33:40]

If you don't know about us, KinoLine, this is what we do here.

[33:42]

We open a screenwriting competition yearly where anyone from around the world, as long

[33:46]

as it's in English and format correctly, can submit their screenplay into our competition.

[33:50]

Readers, film lovers from all around the world, read your work and vote on it.

[33:54]

And if you get the most votes at the end, your screenplay will get made into a movie here at KinoLine.

[34:00]

Just to give you some updates, our first competition winner, The Wave, and last year's competition

[34:05]

winner, Mob mentality, are going into production in 2026.

[34:09]

Yes, you heard that right.

[34:10]

We're making two movies from the past two winners this year.

[34:13]

That means you could, if you win this year, we're going to make your movie next year or

[34:17]

maybe the year after depending on how production goes.

[34:19]

But at the end of the day, if you want your dreams to come true, if you want your screenplay

[34:23]

to be turned into a film, go to KinoLine.com right now.

[34:26]

Set up an account, find out all the information, ask questions.

[34:29]

We're here for you.

[34:30]

Get your submission ready between January 23rd and March 15th.

[34:33]

And we cannot wait.

[34:34]

I cannot wait to read your work.

Our Oscar Predictions: Front-runners, Snubs & Sleepers | Kinolime Podcast Ep 39

Show Notes

Full Transcript

Competition

Company

Site Info

Resources